Sunday, June 21, 2009

Sobering Analysis from Spengler.

In his latest blog entry at First things Spengler says this about the Iranian turmoil:  Iran will not undergo a democratic renewal. It is going through an implosion, and the only question is whether the implosion will be fast or slow.
Iran and much of the Middle East, as Spengler has continually pointed out, have  very dysfunctional societies:  The young people of Tehran who threw themselves in frustration at the security forces seem to be the group that in the great High School Yearbook of the Civilizations would have been voted least likely to succeeded.  They are a suppurating mass of social pathologies. Oil wealth has made prostitution an acceptable way for a young woman to earn university tuition. Perhaps 5% of the adult population is addicted to opiates. About two-fifths of them say they would emigrate given the chance. This generation, particularly the young people of Tehran, refuse to have children.  They do not seem to believe in Islam–their attendance rates at prayers are extremely low–and they show no sign of believing in anything. Like the youth of the former Soviet Union and its satellites after the collapse of the Berlin wall, the hypocrisy of the revolutionary generation before them has extirpated most traces of faith.
Spengler sees turmoil but nothing very good coming from the chaos, unlike David Warren, who, though predicting the Iranian Mullahs winning out in the end, sees many positive benefits from the collapse of their regime.
I will keep the green tint for now and pray to be able to triumphalist.

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