Wuxi Tony Update #366: The impact of a highly intolerable boy in China

This video is a tribute to the bestselling book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan: The Impact of the HIGHLY IMPROBABLE.

Just a thought.

One on my majors in school, Economics, is getting whacked about these days.  Reading the Black Swan book by NNT, I am learning about how Economists are terrible at making predictions.  I am also hearing that Nobel Prize winning economists are on both sides of the fence when it comes to the massive spending of the Obama administration.  Some economists are saying that the massive spending is foolish; some are saying there should be more.  Some economists are also saying that the seemingly high unemployment in America would be worse if it wasn't for the stimulus spending!

 

Why is a Milton Friedman, F.A. Hayek, Free Market, Libertarian economics type to say for himself?  Taleb does say good things in his book about Hayek, Libertarians, and F.A. Bastiat.  I can also recall William Buckley reporting that Milton Friedman did not make predictions.  I also say that if economists were good at predicting then Socialism and Communism would work.  They don't and economists shouldn't make predictions.  Simply put, there is too much going on and so much subjectivity in the world economy that no one could know it or control it.  As for all these Nobel Prize wining Economists disagreeing, I say that the Nobel Prize committee doesn't know what the hell it is doing.  After all, it gave a peace prize to Yasser Arafat as well as Al Gore.  Sure, they gave a Nobel prize to Milton Friedman and F.A. Hayek, but that just goes to show that sometimes even bad organizations do correct things.  It may have also been a plot by the Nobel Committee to discredit the two in a strange attempt to confuse intelligent people.

Top Forty Tweeters to follow about China.

I am not one of them but here is the link.

Why China can't internationalize the Yuan.

For the benefit of readers inside of China, I will post the entire text of the article that can be found here:

 

China has a long way to go to internationalize its currency, Yuan. For one, China does not have a foreign exchange market for Yuan outside China and this would be troublesome for its trading partners to manage currency risk. Also, China's Yuan is tied to the US dollar. It can hardly offer any more stability than the US dollar.  Here is a short analysis from WSJ.

If the dollar's role in the global economy is under a cloud, the yuan isn't the cause. At least not yet.  China this week began allowing trade between companies in five Chinese cities and Hong Kong, Macau, and the ASEAN member countries, to be settled in yuan.  Starting just days before a G-8 summit at which the dollar's status could be a hot topic, the trade settlement moves are China's most tangible step toward promoting the international use of its own currency.
 
In reality, Beijing may find that its remit to mold market forces doesn't extend much beyond its own borders.  China certainly has some good reasons to invoice trade in yuan, not least as a way to slow the growth of its $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves.  But for the practice to take off, key counterparties outside China must be willing to buy and sell using yuan. This is where the plan runs into hurdles.  Some trading partners may find they have no choice -- like those buying high-end machinery for which China's prices are so competitive it's in a position to dictate the settlement currency.

But with China's capital markets off limits to foreigners, firms dealing in yuan can only deposit funds in low yielding accounts in Hong Kong. The yuan isn't traded outside of China so companies won't have a way to manage their foreign exchange risk.  Beijing counters this limitation by trumpeting the yuan's stability. Given the currency's effective peg to the dollar for nearly a year now, it actually offers no more stability than the greenback -- the currency it would seek to replace -- something that won't offer much encouragement to Malaysian or Thai exporters, for example.  Certainly, being able to tap China's flush banks for trade financing is a draw but there's always the risk that avenue may dry up if Beijing tightens credit as it has in the past.  In truth, appreciation, rather than stability, is the yuan's only draw. China's currency regulator said as much in a recently published report, arguing that a rising currency is a prerequisite for yuan settlement.  These days, given the ongoing slump in Chinese exports, that's hardly worth betting on.

Time to get serious?

• Is it time to get serious?  I suppose.  But, about what?
• Reading the Black Swan book by NNT.  It is very interesting.  However, I wonder if 9/11 is in fact a Black Swan.  Throughout the book the event was used as a primary example of the Black Swan phenomenon.  My recollection of 9/11 was that before a big terrorist attack was always expected to occur in the United States.  How and when was the question.  The manner in which 9/11 occurred was novel.  But I remember later on 9/11 exclaiming "so that is how they did it!"  The attack itself was probable.  What wasn't highly probable was the manner in which it took place.  And the attacks have kept occurring around the world, not unexpectedly, like in the U.K. on 7/7.
• I am going to have to read the Papal Encyclical.  Some on the Left are gloating saying it puts the Pope to the left of Obama and Chavez.  But the chances are these types are cherry-picking.
• It is hot and sticky in the house.  I have to drag myself up to ready to go to work. 

More disjointed recollections

• Sleeping in Summer in Wuxi with a two-year old boy is not a continual seemless activity.  Nights are filled with constant interruptions.  Tony, like many other children his age, flops around a lot in his sleep, adopting many positions other than the simple, head on the pillow, feet at the base of bed, position we all eventually adopt.  If you want to sleep with your children, you will have to get used to being kicked in the head.  I wasn't expecting however to be slapped in a manner that didn't make it seem an accident.  Tony looked to take his arm from his side, slap me on the cheek with his hand, before returning his arm to his side.  Awoken from an uneasy slumber, I gently slapped him back but it didn't upset him in the least.  I also had vague recollections of Tony wanting to watch television at 530 a.m. to which I made him formula and put him back to bed.  But I then vaguely recall falling sleep on the sofa at 730 am. after having put on the DVD for Tony.  I think I also slapped him on the feet a couple of times but I can't recall why.
• The parents sent us some Smarties in the care package.  Smarties are candy coated chocolates, like M&Ms, only better, way better.  I remember the Smarties jingle I always heard growing up.  "When you eat your smarties, do you eat the red ones last?  Do you stick them up your asshole and try to make a lot of gas.? Do you stick the green ones up your nostrils and pretend to make a sneeze?  When you eat your smarties, do you eat the red ones last?"  Or something like that....
• I saw this expat I hadn't seen in a while.  Thankfully, I saw him from a distance because I didn't want to do a "stop and chat".  Not that he would have either.

More Randoms

• With so many other things intruding into my waking hours, and now having Tony intrude into my sleeping hours (he dragged me out of bed at five this morning), I will have to do blog entries in this bullet form.
• Yesterday, I received a care package from my parents who live in Brandon, Manitoba, Canada.  The package, they sent, was full of books and other things.  Tony got a whole lot of children books which I eagerly await being able to read to him.  I received three Michael Crichton novels, a Holy Bible (King James Edition), and the non-fiction work The Black Swan:  The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.  I read about fifty pages of The Black Swan last night.  The first thing I turned to in the Bible was the Psalms.  We also received chocolate which may be all consumed by this afternoon.  I also received a pair of trousers which I desperately need.  I have had five trousers become fit for retirement in the space of two weeks.
• Many students told me of having watched the Michael Jackson funeral on the Internet.
• The students don't seem all that interested in the solar eclipse which can be viewed in Wuxi on July 22 at about eight a.m.  One student told me that if forced to make a choice, they would rather watch the MJ funeral than the solar eclipse.  But that is not so astounding when you take into account how cloudy and smoggy it is in Wuxi.
• I shouldn't but will also mention that I received a stick of Deodorant:  Speed Stick with odour of Irish Spring.  It is getting these things that make life bearable here in humid Wuxi.  I don't how many times  a stick of deodorant in the backpack has been pulled out to restore my confidence.   I don't want to be like the many stinky ex-pats I have had to experience.  Whooo!!!!
• Thanks now to the extra books coming in, I now can say I have four books on my currently-reading plate.  I am in the midst of this translation of the Iliad, the Mill on the Floss, A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur's Court, and now the Black Swan book.  I suppose I will plow through the Black Swan book before returning to the others.  Although, neglecting the Iliad and the Mill on the Floss may mean getting the characters mixed up.
• (Exclusive to Blogspot readers outside of the PRC)  I asked the students about Xinjiang but there really wasn't anywhere I could go with the topic other, than to ask them if they had heard the story and had any opinions.  The students had heard about it and were following it.  Though some said they were more interested in the Michael Jackson funeral.  I asked them how they thought the Xinjiangren in Wuxi would be treated and one student expressed a fear of them saying they were always trying to steal bags and wallets (this I have witnessed myself).  No idea if the Wuxi locals would go to Xinjiang Noodle houses of which there are many in the city.  Another student told me he had to Xinjiang for two years around 2001 for business.  He said the place was beautiful but he didn't tell me anything about how the Xughurs treated him.  I finally asked the students if the events in Xinjiang would impact Wuxi and all seemed to agree that Xinjiang was too far away to worry about.

Wuxi Tony Update #365: Basketball Tony!

Watch Tony attempt his first basketball shot and pass. This video was taken at a basketball court in our apartment complex. Tony loved what was going on even though he didn't understand fully what he was looking at.

A few more things about Shanghai...

Whilst in Shanghai on Tuesday, I did take a few photos.

I saw some Urban landscaping sort of stuff:


It will be hard to go to Shanghai and not see this for the next few years. It is the mascot for the 2010 Shanghai Expo.

I took the following two photos at the Shanghai Museum. These figures seem to be posing and strutting on top of babies. But I don't know what they are supposed to represent.

While in Shanghai on Tuesday, I also experienced the annoyance of trying to board and deboard the subway. One time, the door shut stopping me from getting on. Another time, I had to shove to get off the car. It seems that boarding passengers won't wait for other passengers to get off before trying to get on. It is annoying and it wouldn't surprise me if fights don't occasionally result.